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Tuesday, 22 July 2008

Mizuho Corporate Bank

EUR
Comment: Basing against 1.5800 and closing above 1.5900 yesterday might add some much-needed bullish momentum for a re-test of 1.6020/1.6040 all-time high.
Strategy: Attempt small longs on a dip to 1.5900, adding to 1.5835; stop below 1.5750. Cover longs between 1.5950 and 1.6020, re-buying on a weekly close above 1.6025 or a sustained break above 1.6050 for 1.6100 and then 1.6250.

EUR/JPY
Comment: Working within a potential ‘broadening top’ but as yet there are no clear signs of a final ‘spike high’ even though we posted a new all-time high at 169.91. Watch for one of these again today and possibly all week.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 169.60; stop above 170.15. Short term target 168.25, then 167.00.

GBP
Comment: Rallying from 1.9900 and closing above 2.0000, one of the strongest this year, should set off another short squeeze by the end of this week. Only when Cable starts holding comfortably above 2.0100 will the risk of further downside tests ease.
Strategy: Buy at 2.0010, adding to 1.9925; stop below 1.9800. Short term target 2.0100, then 2.0200.

JPY
Comment: Stalling ahead of 107.50 yesterday and now drifting down towards 106.00, as expected. Expect more cautious work under 107.00 today, dips probably contained by the top of the cloud at 106.00. Later this week prices should dip below here. Only a weekly close below 105.50 suggests an interim high is in place.
Strategy: Sell at 106.50/106.75; stop above 107.20. Short term target 106.00, then 105.00.