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Showing posts with label FX Instructor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FX Instructor. Show all posts

Tuesday, 22 April 2008

FX Instructor

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday, the EURUSD continued it's bullish momentum after corrected on Friday. My model is long, targeting psychological 1.6000 area. Immediate support seen at 1.5860 followed by 1.5790. CCI in overbought area on daily chart, so another minor downside pullback might be happened today.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.5816, S2= 1.5725, S3= 1.5660,
R1= 1.5972, R2= 1.6037, R3= 1.6128

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling slumped broadly against Dollar yesterday, bottomed at 1.9776 and closed at 1.9791. This fact force my model to mixed for GBPUSD, but still with upside bias. The key level is 1.9740. Initial resistance at 1.9900. CCI in neutral area.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.9702, S2= 1.9614, S3= 1.9452,
R1= 1.9952, R2= 2.0114, R3= 2.0202

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY failed to maintain bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 102.98 and closed 103.24. My model is mixed with downside bias since CCI already in overbought area and about to cross 100 line down on daily chart. Immediate resistance at 103.75. Initial support at 102.70.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 102.79, S2= 102.34, S3= 101.71,
R1= 103.87, R2= 104.50, R3= 104.95

USDCHF Outlook
The Swiss Franc was traded stronger against Dollar yesterday but still moved between ranging area (1.0200 and 0.9984). My model is short, so I am expecting a downside break out from the ranging area. CCI in neutral zone on daily chart

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.0030, S2= 0.9975, S3= 0.9888,
R1= 1.0172, R2= 1.0259, R3= 1.0314

Thursday, 17 April 2008

FX Instructor

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD broke triple top resistance area, 1.5904, and set new all time high at 1.5978. Technically speaking, in the big picture, the pair is now chasing Fibonacci Expansion projection at 1.6250 area. On the daily chart, CCI already in overbought area so watch out for a downside retracement today. Immediate support at 1.5904. Nearest Resistance at 1.6058

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.5808, S2= 1.5674, S3= 1.5589, R1= 1.6027, R2= 1.6112, R3= 1.6246

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling recovered versus Dollar yesterday, but my model for GBPUSD is still short. Immediate resistance at 1.9765 area, followed by 1.9850. Initial support at 1.9680, followed by 1.9620. CCI has cross - 100 level up, so another minor upside pullback might be happen today.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.9613, S2= 1.9504, S3= 1.9408, R1= 1.9818, R2= 1.9914, R3= 2.0023

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY tried to go lower yesterday bottomed at 100.82, but the Dollar recovered broadly and USDJPY closed at 101.77. On the daily chart, CCI in neutral area, but on the 4h chart, CCI already in overbought area and about to cross 100 line down. We might have a choppy market today. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate resistance seen at 102.30. Initial support at 101.25

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 101.08, S2= 100.39, S3= 99.97, R1= 102.19, R2= 102.61, R3= 103.30

USDCHF Outlook
Following the Euro, the Swiss Franc was traded stronger yesterday. My model for USDCHF is short targeting 0.9862. Immediate resistance at 1.0030 area. CCI about to cross 100 line down on the daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 0.9921, S2= 0.9843, S3= 0.9748, R1= 1.0094, R2= 1.0189, R3= 1.0267

Wednesday, 9 April 2008

FX Instructor

EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD reach top at 1.5798 yesterday, but closed a little bit weaker at 1.5702. But my model is still bullish, so I am expecting the pair will make further upside attempt today. Immediate support at 1.5670, followed by 1.5625. Initial resistance at 1.5850.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
* S1= 1.5651 * S2= 1.5600 * S3= 1.5527
* R1= 1.5775 * R2= 1.5848 * R3= 1.5899

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling slumped further against US Dollar yesterday, bottomed at 1.9664. The nearest target is 1.9586 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement from 2.0397 to 1.9336). On daily chart, CCI is already in oversold area, so watch out for a minor upside rebound. Immediate resistance at 1.9748.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
* S1= 1.9589 * S2= 1.9495 * S3= 1.9327
* R1= 1.9851 * R2= 2.0019 * R3= 2.0113

USDJPY Outlook
On the daily chart, the USDJPY seems to have strong resistances at 102.80-90 area. My short/medium outlook is still bullish and still targeting key level at 103.66. Immediate support at 102.25 followed by 101.50.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
* S1= 101.98 * S2= 101.40 * S3= 101.05
* R1= 102.91 * R2= 103.26 * R3= 103.84

USDCHF Outlook
USDCHF still can not break out from ranging area between 1.0197 and 0.9988. As long as the pair stay below 1.0197, my model is still bearish. Immediate support at 1.0087.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
* S1= 1.0088 * S2= 1.0031 * S3= 0.9998
* R1= 1.0178 * R2= 1.0211 * R3= 1.0268

Wednesday, 9 January 2008

FX Instructor

EUR/USD Technical View
Euro formed an inside bar on Tuesday and until now, today's price action has been contained inside yesterday's as the pair covered only 40 points from low to high. The intermediary resistance at 1.4735 has so far proven to be a strong one and this is in line with our previous comments, that while we're trading below 1.4750 we should look for possible short targets; moving under the 1.4700 round number should give us a more clearer bearish signal at least for short term. Conversely a push in the 1.4750-1.4800 area will get us closer to the trendline we have marked on our daily chart below and will force us to be more cautious about opening new shorts.

Resistance Levels
1.5000-- round number
1.4966- Nov 23rd high
1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels
1.4500- round number
1.4300 – Sept 30th High
1.4000 – Round number
1.3850 – July 24th High

GbpUsd Technical View
GbpUsd tested once again the 1.9800 resistance line after a piece of news got out of the UK yesterday's morning but has slowly started to move lower in the afternoon and n today's late Asian session and early European session we witnessed a sharp 140 points move that has taken out the previous weekly lows and is now getting very close to the 1.9600 support area. We were right in our assessment that the trend is still bearish but our mentioning of a possible retest of the 2.000 area has not came true as the pair broke the closest support level on its way to 1.9600. If the momentum keeps up we have to start looking at the 1.9550 level as the next significant bearish target and support zone.

Resistance Levels
2.1148 – Nov 9th High
2.1065 – Nov 7th High
2.0650 – July 24th High
2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels
2.0000 – Round number
1.9800 – Round Number
1.9670 – August 17th Low

Wednesday, 21 November 2007

FX Instructor

EUR/USD Technical View
EurUsd pushed higher, breaking the former resistance area now turned into support at 1.4700/1.4735; the pair even broke through the 1.4800 level in Tuesday's session reaching a high at 1.4850. So far today we are seeing a small retrace towards the 1.4800 round number but the overall bias is still bullish and perhaps now more than ever the 1.5000 target seems in reach, for this to happen the pair needs to break above 1.4850 which is the closest resistance level. Conversely a slip under 1.4800 combined with the overbought signals from the oscillators will give bears a new chance at opening new trades, the closest bearish target is the former YTD high at 1.4735.

Resistance Levels
* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High
Support Levels
* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View
GbpUsd put in a strong day yesterday covering more than 200 points but it lacked energy to stay above the 2.0650 resistance level and we are seeing the pair slipping lower already giving back more than half the points it gained yesterday. This move looks like a retrace and we expect cable to recover and start once again to break the 2.0650 resistance and aim for the 2.0775 target area. On the other hand a strengthening of the US dollar, although unlikely at this point, will push the pair lower and bring to our attention the 2.0500 area as the closest support before the already proven 2.0365 level.

Resistance Levels
* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

Support Levels
* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

Tuesday, 13 November 2007

FX Instructor

EUR/USD Technical View
Euro followed the other majors and lost ground against the the US dollar on Monday, the pair broke below the support trendline and the 1.4600 level only to find support a few points above 1.4500. After yesterday's big move down, more than 140 points, we are seeing the pair bounce back up, it has already recovered most of the lost ground and is trading again above 1.4600. The volatility has clearly increased in the last few days and that has affected almost every pair, having changed the way price action develops usually, EurUsd mid term trend is still bullish although we have seen a repositioning in the market mostly based on fundamental reasons. The main target for longs is now the YTD high at 1.4735 which has so far proven to be a good resistance level as well. On the other hand a failure to resume the up trend will push the pair lower perhaps below the 1.4500 support area.

Resistance Levels
* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High
Support Levels
* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High

GbpUsd Technical View
Cable continued Friday's move with another spectacular day on Monday, covering more than 300 points and breaking through support levels until it reached the 2.0520 area which is very close to the starting point of the October push north. Same as the Euro, GbpUsd has bounced back in the Asian session and is now trading around the 2.0650 resistance area. The most was not triggered by any technical view, and was mostly based on the UK banking rumors, so its hard to say if it has come to a stop or not. Looking at the daily chart we can see the 2.0500 support area just below today's low and if the pair starts dropping again we will enter into a former consolidation area filled with formed highs and lows that can provide support and resistance levels and price targets. On the north side the first targets are the 50.0 and 61.8 Fib Retracement levels of the last fall, around 2.0825 and 2.0750 respectively.

Resistance Levels
* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
Support Levels
* 2.0650 – July 24th High
* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

Friday, 2 November 2007

FX Instructor

EUR/USD Technical View
Euro formed a down bar on Thursday, moving lower after it printed a new record high at the 1.4500 round number, the low was the 1.4400 support line which sent the pair back up so far in today's trading hours. We have some data coming out later in the day and considering its the end of the week positions might be reevaluated, but looking at the chart below one can see that the trend is still up and while trading above 1.4400 it pays to be on the lookout for resistance levels and possible targets. Closest by is of course the YTD high at 1.4500 and above that there is no more clear resistance other than the 1.4600 round number. As far as support areas are concerned, we have this weeks low at 1.4373 before the 1.4300 round number.

Resistance Levels
* 1.4467 YTD High
* 1.4300- round number
Support Levels
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3930 – September 13th high
* 1.3850 – July 24th High
* 1.3680 – April 27th High
* 1.3550 – June 5th High

GbpUsd Technical View
Cable put in a volatile day on Thursday, it printed a new record high at 2.0880 and after the European trading hours ended it gave back most of those gains to get below 2.0800; so far the pair is moving higher again and is trading comfortably above 2.0800. Same as the EurUsd the general trend is bullish, and while trading around these high levels one should be aware of future resistance areas, first one is yesterday's high at 2.0880, getting above that will get us very close to the 2.0900 round number followed by the psychological 2.1000 target. On the other side after such a strong push the US dollar might start recovering some of its strength, and if the fundamental news give comes out dollar positive that should push cable towards yesterday's low at 2.0740, if that move turns into a more serious retracement the next significant support line is at the July high of 2.0650.

Resistance Levels
* 2.0650 – July 24th High
* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
Support Levels
* 2.0200 – Round number
* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9670 – May 21st low
* 1.9550 – previously tested support

Friday, 26 October 2007

FX Instructor

EUR/USD Technical View
The pair pushed higher on Thursday reaching Monday night high and continued to move in today's Asian session and is now trading above the previous highs, the current YTD high is at 1.4375. Breaking a new high should give the bulls the upper hand as the momentum is clearly on the long side, now that the pair is trading above the resistance level the only significant target left on the charts is the 1.4500 round number. Although the price still points north reaching the above mentioned target is not going to be a one way trip, so we need to be aware of the possibility of a retracement, if that happens the support is represented by the 1.4300 round number and the up sloping trend lines you see marked on our chart and lower down we have Monday's low at 1.4120.

Resistance Levels
* 1.4350 YTD High
* 1.4200- round number
Support Levels
* 1.3930 – September 13th high
* 1.3850 – July 24th High
* 1.3680 – April 27th High
* 1.3550 – June 5th High

GbpUsd Technical View
Cable traded just under the 2.0500 for the most part of Thursday's trading hours and it finally managed to breakthrough at the end of the session; now the pair made a new high at 2.0570 and appears to have enough energy to keep above 2.0500. The daily charts still look bullish and with only a small push we could reach the current YTD high and closest resistance level at 2.0650, if that happens in the following days we could witnessed a new record high on this pair after that. On the other hand the upside momentum doesn't look that strong and things might slow down or a retracement might happen, with that in mind we have to look at the 2.0500 level now turned into support followed by 2.0365, 2.0310-25 sequence of support area that will have an effect on the price if we get that low.

Resistance Levels
* 2.0650 – July 24th High
* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
Support Levels
* 2.0200 – Round number
* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9670 – May 21st low
* 1.9550 – previously tested support

Wednesday, 24 October 2007

FX Instructor

EUR/USD Technical View
Euro slowly moved higher on Tuesday but it lacked the energy to get close to the 1.4300 round number and as a consequence of that it has started the day losing a few points and retesting the 1.4200 level. The situation hasn't changed that much, the overall trend is still bullish this seems just like a cooling down period especially after Monday's moves. Looking for important price levels, on the north side we aim for the YTD high at 1.4350 before possibly making a strong push towards the 1.4500 round number, both of these levels act as a target and as resistance levels to be aware of; conversely on the south side support is represented by the up sloping trendlines we have on our chart and Monday's low at 1.4120 followed by the 1.4000 level.

Resistance Levels
* 1.4350 YTD High
* 1.4200- round number
Support Levels
* 1.3930 – September 13th high
* 1.3850 – July 24th High
* 1.3680 – April 27th High
* 1.3550 – June 5th High

GbpUsd Technical View
Cable moved sharply up yesterday, recuperating most of the ground lost on Monday, it reached the 2.0500 level where it encountered some resistance and is now trading a little lower. Same as in the euro the bias is still bullish and we have to pay attention to price action around resistance levels, first one is last nights high at 2.0517 followed closely by Monday night high at 2.0535, if both of them are breached we can start looking at the current YTD high at 2.0650 as the main bullish target on the charts at the moment. AS far as support areas we can see the 2.0365 level followed closely by the 2.0310-2.0325 area which proved to be a very important one in the last couple of weeks.

Resistance Levels
* 2.0650 – July 24th High
* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
Support Levels
* 2.0200 – Round number
* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9670 – May 21st low
* 1.9550 – previously tested support

Tuesday, 21 August 2007

FX Instructor

EUR/USD Technical View
The week started and EurUsd traded inside a very small range between the 1.3460 support line and the 1.3500 round number, most traders out there are still waiting to see which way to go and that depends on the future evolution of interest rates in the US. AS far as technical levels go,while trading above 1.3460 we should pay attention to a possible move up, the most significant bullish target and resistance level is the 1.3600 area which has already proven to be key zone. On the other hand a move below 1.3460 will get us very close to the 1.3365 low from last Thursday and that should shift focus on the June 13th low at 1.3260 which at the moment is the main support level we see on the current setup. Trading in the following days should be, even more so than usually, very careful as the markets still seem to wait and react on fundamentals.

Resistance Levels
* 1.3850 – July 24th High
* 1.3750 – round number
* 1.3680 – April 27th High
* 1.3550 – June 5th High

Support Levels
* 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
* 1.3365 – December 3rd High
* 1.3260 – June 13th Low


GbpUsd Technical View
Cable started the week with a move north from 1.9800 to 1.9900, but the 1.9900 resistance proved to be strong and after a few failed attempts to go over it, price started to slip and so far today we are going to retest the 1.9800. Looking at the daily chart below we can see that a break below the 1.9750/60 area will probably push the pair even lower and we will see a move to Friday's low at 1.9670, with that being our main support level followed only by the 1.9550 area which has been established as support earlier in the year. Conversely a failure to get below 1.9750/60 or even a bounce from the 1.9800 will bring, once again, the 1.9900 into attention and with that also the 1.9950, both as intermediary resistance levels before the 2.0000.

Resistance Levels
* 2.0650 – July 24th High
* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0200 – Round number
* 2.0000 – Round number

Support Levels
* 1.9670 – May 21st low
* 1.9550 – previously tested support