Kshitij Consultancy Service

USD-CHF @ 1.0883/88.... Could consolidate between 1.0750-1.0925
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.0900 / 1.0920 / 1.0960 / 1.1000-25
S: 1.0875 / 1.0850-40 / 1.0800 / 1.0750-35
The Support at 1.08 has held in the day and resulted in a rise towards 1.0925 since then. The Resistance at 1.0925 is strong and could result in a dip once again.

Having said this, a slow consolidation could take place between 1.0750-1.0925 in the week ahead without breaking past either the Support or the Resistance.

GBP-USD @ 1.8769/73.... Economy in Trouble!
----------------------------------------------
R: 1.8800 / 1.8840 / 1.8880-8900
S: 1.8740 / 1.8720-10 / 1.8675
Our target of 1.88 given in our report earlier in the day has already been met. This sharp decline of over 240 pips in the day is owing to the data that release that was below expectation. UK Claimant count change, UK Average Earnings Index and the Unemployment rate were all released in the day and resulted in the Cable being pressured.

There are some rumours in the market about the UK raising interest rates owing to the infaltion which is close to the double their comfort level at 2.2%. However, the market is still pressuring the pair downwards. With rising interest rates in an economy that is having negligible growth, the market isnt expected to react otherwise. From here, have a keen eye on the economic releases which are continuing to worsen over the last few months.

AUD-USD @ 0.8698/0.8702.... 0.8670-60 important Support
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R: 0.8705 / 0.8725-35 / 0.8765
S: 0.8630 / 0.8600 / 0.8575
As expected earlier in the day, the pair has moved higher towards 0.8740-45, and facing Resistance there has come down below 0.87 once again. From here, if the Support at 0.8670 holds, a further rise towards 0.88 could be seen over the week.

However, a break below 0.8670 would mean that the rise was just a spike up and could now be bearish once again to target levels below 0.86. The eventual target of this fall could be 0.85, which happens to be the 61.8% Retracement of the rise from 0.7674 (Aug-07) to 0.9851 (Jul-08).

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service

USD-CHF @ 1.501/05...Watch Resistance at 1.0520
R: 1.0495-0514 / 1.0549
S: 1.0453 / 1.0432-10 / 1.0392-67

Dollar-Swiss rose to once again test the crucial Resistance at 1.0520, but retreated from there. While that Resistance holds, there are at least 50% (possibly 60%) chances of a fall back towards 1.0435 and lower, later in the day.
In case the market manages to rise past 1.0549 (projected Max High for the Day), it may herald further gains towards 1.0628, enroute 1.0707 next week.

GBP-USD @ 1.9486/90...Will it close above 1.95?
R: 1.9564 / 1.9606-15
S: 1.9460-49 / 1.9414 / 1.9392

The Pound dipped to 1.9465 during the day, buy has bounced back a bit from there. It is imperative that it close above 1.95 today in order to prevent a fall towards 1.9365 (earlier Low on 14-May) and possibly 1.9250. If it does manage to close above 1.95, we could see a bounce back up towards 1.96-97 over the next 2-3 days. Such a bounce would mean continuation of the 1.95-99 range that the market has been in over the past few weeks.

AUD-USD @ 0.9517/20...Massive Triangle - take a look
R: 0.9550-75 / 0.9600 / 0.9630-50
S: 0.9500-9485 / 0.9460 / 0.9422

If you look at the Daily Line chart, you will see that that the Aussie is tracing a massive ascending triangle, with the base being the Nov-07 to Jan-08 fall. There is immediate Resistance at 0.9650 and immediate Support at 0.9450 now as the market is coming very close to the Apex of the triangle. A breakout is imminent in either the next few days or a couple of weeks. Whichever way it breaks, it could set off a big, long-lasting trend, giving a lot of opportunity to make money.

Kshitij Consultancy Service

USD-CHF @ 1.0391/95...Resistances overhead.
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.0432 / 1.0458-74 / 1.0500
S: 1.0398-91 / 1.0327-09
Strong rise in Dollar-Swiss during the day, further aided by the stronger than expected US Durable Goods. But, Resistance at 1.0432 is holding for now, being near the projected Max High on the 3-day chart. In case this Resistance breaks later on, a further rise towards 1.0500 might take place. Before that, however, there is Resistance at 1.0458, the projected Max High on the Weekly Chart.

GBP-USD @ 1.9740/44...Vulnerable to a fall
------------------------------------------
R: 1.9790 / 1.9850
S: 1.9709-04 / 1.9660-50 / 1.9613
The Pound is looking particulary vulnerable to a fall, initially towards 1.9650, the projected Max Low for the Day. But, that Support is also liable to break, leading to a possible fall towards 1.9565. A rise past 1.9850 is now needed to negate the chances of a fall.

Limit Sell Order:
Sell GBP 10K at 1.9780, SL 1.9870, TP 1.9575

AUD-USD @ 0.9585/88...Oblivious to the world
---------------------------------------------
R: 0.9640-50
S: 0.9560-50 / 0.9500
Oblivious to the world, the Aussie continues to trade sideways between 0.9550-9650. But while capped below 0.9650, it could be vulnerable to a dip towards 0.9500.

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service

USD-CHF @ 1.0270/74...Support at 1.0215-00 may be tested
--------------------------------------------------------
R: 1.0320 / 1.0356
S: 1.0250-33-16 / 1.0177
The Resistance at 1.0350 held and the market has come off sharply during the day. A further fall towards 1.0250-15 is likely. Thereafter, the strength of the Support at 1.0200 will come into play/ focus. If the Support breaks, we would likely see a test of 1.0177, the projected Max Low for the day. Such a fall might be quite bearish going forward.


GBP-USD @ 1.9816/19...Holding Long
----------------------------------
R: 1.9850-78 / 1.9910
S: 1.9766-50 / 1.9710
The Cable has started moving up again after dipping to 1.9755. Looking for a rise towards 1.9850-80 in the US session. A fall below 1.9750 (if seen) could take the market down towards 1.9710.

Holding:
GBP 10K Long at 1.9823, SL 1.9740 (up from 1.9733), TP 1.9925.


AUD-USD @ 0.9610/14...Bullish, Supported at 0.9550
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R: 0.9650
S: 0.9550
The Support at 0.9550 has held during the day and the Aussie is now headed up towards 0.9650. If the rise is sustained (it well might), the market may well acquire further bullishness, targeting 0.9750 and higher. At the least, we may look for a range of 0.9650-9550 to hold through Monday as well.

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service

USD-CHF @ 1.0381/85... Upside more favoured
------------------------------------------------------
R: 1.0400 / 1.0465 / 1.0500
S: 1.0350 / 1.0300 / 1.0270-60 / 1.0230
The Resistance at 1.04 has been tested again in the day and has held once again. The overall view remains same as in the morning. If the tight range 1.03-04 broken on the upside could target 1.05. In case of a break below 1.03 we could see a dip to 1.0250. The chances of a fall below 1.0260 are less, however if seen, it could target 1.0220-17, the Max low for the day.

A cautious buy on a dip to 1.0270-60 could be considered. We could also consider going Long only on the break above 1.04, but with the FOMC scheduled later in the US session, volatility could go against us.

GBP-USD @ 1.9665/70.. Holding Long
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R: 1.9700-20 / 1.9745-55 / 1.9815
S: 1.9620-10 / 1.9598 / 1.9525
The Pound fell to near 1.9625 during the day (below the 1.9650 Support mentioned in the morning), bounced from there to 1.9701 and is currently trading just above 1.9650. Resistance will be faced at 1.9700-20. A move beyond 1.9700 could trigger a bigger rally from thereon towards 1.9850 over today and tomorrow.

For now the Support is at 1.9610-20. A break below that could target 1.9525. 1.9550

Holding:
Long GBP 10K at 1.9680, SL 1.9605, TP 1.9770


AUD-USD @ 0.9353/57... Holding Long
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R: 0.9379 / 0.9406
S: 0.9326 / 0.9293
The Aussie seems to have built decent Support in the 0.9326-9293 region. If and while this holds (it might), an upmove towards 0.94+ could take place. NOTE, however, that a rise past 0.9370-80 would be needed to bring further confidence to the currently fledgling bullishness. IN CASE there is a fall below 0.9293, a further decline towards 0.9250 could take place.

Holding:
AUD 10K Long at 0.9307, SL 0.9290, TP 0.9378


Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service

USD-CHF @ 1.0379/84.... Breakout possible
------------------------------------------
R: 1.0400 / 1.0475 / 1.0502
S: 1.0350 / 1.0300 / 1.0220 / 1.0193-88
The pair is trading in a tight range for the day. With Resistance at 1.04 and Support at 1.03 it is difficult to anticipate the direction of the breakout. It has tested 1.04 twice over in the day, however, is unable to break past it. The bias still remains bullish as long as the pair trades above 1.0350 and could target 1.0502, the Max High for the day.

A break below 1.0350, the immediate Support could lead to a test of 1.03 in the day. A break below it is not likely today. However, a slide below 1.03 would target 1.02 over the next few days.

We would like to enter the market only on a break of either 1.04 or 1.03.


GBP-USD @ 1.9716/19 ... Range continues
-----------------------------------------
R: 1.9800 / 1.9845-55 / 1.9939
S: 1.9700 / 1.9650 / 1.9600
A huge fall has been witnessed in Cable in the day so far. A 200 pip slide has brought the Cable to the important Support of 1.9720, also the Max low for the day. For the day, a slight bounce from here towards 1.98 could be on the cards. However, a test of Range Support at 1.9650-1.9600 is still highly likely over tomorrow and day after as the range still holds and direction is now bearish for a few days.

On the upside, Resistance is expected beyond 1.9800 at 1.9855. Nothing beyond is currently plausible. We might look to either sell on a rally or buy on a further fall.


AUD-USD @ 0.9304/07... Buy some
--------------------------------
R: 0.9357-69 / 0.9390 / 0.9428
S: 0.9300-9290 / 0.9284-74 / 0.9259
The Aussie has dropped to 0.9300 during the day, but the Support is seen to be holding for the while. There is stronger Support available at 0.9250 as well. While these hold, there could be chances of a rise towards 0.9450. HOWEVER, in case the Support at 0.9250 breaks, a fall towards 0.9070 could follow. For today, the projected Max Low for the day being 0.9284, we do not anticipate much further downside.

Market Trade (at time of writing):
Buy AUD at current level, SL 0.9232, TP 0.9402


Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service

USD-CHF @ 0.9978/82....Bearish Biased
-------------------------------------
R: 1.0050 / 1.0090
S: 0.9950 / 0.9900
USD-CHF has been volatile during the week. It hit a low of 0.9888 before
rallying sharply to a high near 1.0093. It has again come off sharply today once again. The pair is currently choppy, ranged between 0.9915-1.0165. It is likely to stay pressured later today and in the first part of next week.

For today, the immediate Support would be in at 0.9950. Below that the Support would come in at 0.9900, on the trendline on the Daily Charts joining the lows of 0.9637 (17-Mar) and 0.9888 (10-Apr). On the upside the Resistance would come in at 1.0050 and then at 1.0090. The pair is likely to face selling on rallies.


GBP-USD @ 1.9727/32..…Support at 1.9650
--------------------------------------
R: 1.9800 / 1.9850
S: 1.9700 / 1.9660-50
Despite the weakness in the pair this week so far, GBP-USD has been holding
above its important Support of 1.9650. A break below that would be required for a bigger fall to be seen. While the Support holds, the pair is likely to stay within its range of 2.0000 and 1.9650 for the remainder of today and early next week.

There has been little move in the pair today so far and it continues to trade above its Support of 1.9700. Below that the Support is at 1.9650, on the above-mentioned trendline. The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 1.9600. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.9790, and then at 1.9840.

Our EUR-GBP Short has been exited at its breakeven of 0.8006, having missed the intended TP of 0.7960 by 7-10 pips earlier in the morning.

Limit Buy Order:
Buy GBP 10K at 1.9567, SL 1.9477, TP Open

AUD-USD @ 0.9293/97....Holding Short
-----------------------------------
Holding:
Short AUD 10K 0.9286, SL 0.9323, TP 0.9228

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service

GBP-USD @ 1.9845/50 ...Bernanke bearish, USD Bullish!
R: 1.9835-50 / 1.9900 / 1.9950
S: 1.9800 / 1.9750 / 1.9725
A close above 1.9800 was seen on Cable yesterday and this brought a bullish bias back into the pair. However, today the Cable again saw a sharp dip to the levels of 1.9758. In retrospect it was a missed opportunity to buy. To see the Support at 1.9750 click at

Ben Bernanke’s acceptance of the fact that US might face a recession has brought some strength in the Greenback. This seemingly strange phenomenon can be explained as follows - The market could have discounted this view already and so when the Fed chief turned bearish on the economy no one was surprised.

The other aspect is that now the Fed President is aware of the realistic view (to which he had closed his eyes earlier) and could act better now in order to avoid further damage in the economy.Thus a rally beyond 1.9900 might not be seen today. Dollar could possibly gain against all the majors in a few days to come. Strong Resistance could possibly be seen near 1.9831-50. We were bullish in the morning, however, we have changed our stance and are neutral now.

USD-CHF @ 1.0165/70 ...Not much Resistance above
R: 1.0180 / 1.0200 / 1.0250
S: 1.0150 / 1.0125 / 1.0100
USD-CHF has broken past an important resistance at 1.0165-70, from where it had retraced twice earlier. The break has been a reason to enter a Long. For now, it seems to be headed towards 1.0250. There isn’t any Resistance between now and 1.0233. A break below 1.0150 would cast a minor doubt on the rally. Possibly it could also be another opportunity to buy.

Supports are at 1.0155, on the trendline joining the highs of 1.0251 (24-Mar) and 1.0166 (2-Apr). 1.0117-25 is the Support midway, however, the strongest Support is further lower, at 1.0100.

Holding:
Long USD 10K at 1.0183, SL 1.0160 (up from 1.0100), TP 1.0233

AUD-USD @ 0.9105/09 ...Push Buy Order lower
R: 0.9115-35
S: 0.9084 / 0.9050
In the morning we had suggested that the Aussie was a definite buy on a dip. Indeed, the market has dipped during the day after having failed to sustain a rise past 0.9165. The important Support to watch now is 0.9050, which falls on the blue trendline on the Daily Candles on the following page

While this Support holds, the Aussie could move up, in line with the 3-day and Weekly Candles on the same page. A break below 0.9000, if seen, could target 0.8900.

Limit Buy Order:
Buy AUD 10K at 0.9070 (down from 0.9090), SL 0.9030 (up from 0.9020), TP Open

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service

GBP-USD @ 1.9816/20...Mixed now
R: 1.9840 / 1.9875 / 1.99
S: 1.9740-25 / 1.9700 / 1.9600
The Support at 1.9740 has held and the market has moved up during the day. It is currently trading above 1.98. There is an important Resistance at 1.9860. A break beyond 1.9860 would turn the outlook bullish and the target of the rally then could be 2.00 in a couple of days. The bias is now totally mixed for the day.

The downside, it seems, is restricted to 1.9740-30, and much slide below it might not be possible. If it breaks, look to sell as the fall then might be sharp and sudden.

USD-CHF @ 1.0119/23...Holding cautious Long
R: 1.0160-70 / 1.0250 / 1.0355
S: 1.0100-80 / 1.0060-50 / 1.000
The pair has cooled off a bit after a short rally in the early Asian trade. The bias is still positive and we may add to Long, if significantly lower levels are seen. As things stand, even though the idea behind the trade is fine; the entry probably was a little hasty. The immediate Support is at 1.0089-100 and below that at 1.0060-50. We expect the Support at 1.0090 to hold, as it is the 21-SMA on the daily as well as the 8-SMA on the 4-hourly. The Resistances in sight are at 1.0160-70 and then near 1.0250.

Holding:
Long USD 10K at 1.0150, SL 1.0060 (up from 1.0020), TP 1.0230

AUD-USD @ 0.9115/19...Not doing anything
R: 0.9131-40 / 0.9150 / 0.9185-95
S: 0.9100 / 0.9040 / 0.9000
Aussie has witnessed a gain against the USD just like all the other majors. For the day a lot depends on the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, which nowadays is closely watched as an indicator of the upcoming US NFP on Friday. There also remains much in the hands of the US Fed President Bernanke, who will speak today at 1330 GMT.

Aussie currently is mixed, however a break out above 0.9131, the 21-SMA on the 4-hrly, could possibly bring further bullish bias in the early US session. The immediate Support is at 0.9100. The downside is restricted by Support at 0.9035 for the day, on the trendline joining the lows of 0.8611(23-Jan), 0.8954 (20-Mar) and 0.8978 (22-Mar) on the Daily chart. This Support not breaking has led to the curent rally beyond 0.9100 today.

Not wanting to do anything at all for now.

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service

GBP-USD @ 1.9990/94...Support at 1.9940-33
R: 2.0040 / 2.0100
S: 1.9940-33 / 1.9900
After the sharp rally yesterday, GBP-USD has fallen sharply today after hitting a high of 2.0113. The pair is currently trying to from a range to trade within which over the next few days. The possible range looks to be 2.0120 and 1.9800.

Now the immediate Support is at 1.9940-33, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. Below that the Support would come in at 1.9900. On the upside the Resistance is at 2.0040 and 2.0100. We don’t have any trades in the pair currently.

USD-CHF @ 0.9970/74....Further Lower
R: 1.0000 / 1.0060
S: 0.9960-58 / 0.9900
After failing near its 20-Day MA of 1.0214 yesterday, USD-CHF had a sharp fall, which is gaining momentum currently. The pair has fallen sharply during the day. Currently the immediate Support to watch would be 0.9960-58, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. A break below that would indicate a fall towards 0.9900 could be seen.

On the upside the Resistance would come in at 1.0000 and then near 1.0060. We continue to be bearish on the pair currently.

AUD-USD @ 0.9224/28...Resistance near 0.9255-60
R: 0.9220-25 / 0.9253-60 / 0.9320
S: 0.9160 / 0.9120
AUD-USD has had a nice rally during the day and is currently headed towards 0.9220-25, on the small trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the highs of 0.9036 (21-Mar) and 0.9156 (25-Mar). Above this the important Resistance would be at 0.9253-60, near the 20-Day MA, which could hold. However, if that is crossed on a daily close basis, then a rally towards 0.9320 could be seen in the next 24 hours.

On the downside the Supports now are at 0.9160 and 0.9120. While the pair is bullish biased, we expect 0.9253-60 to hold.

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service

GBP-USD @ 1.9796/99...Resistance at 1.9900
R: 1.9840 / 1.9900
S: 1.9740 / 1.9700
GBP-USD was weak during the day and it hit a low of 1.9736 before bouncing back. This bounce back is likely to soon find Resistance near 1.9840, which could hold. However, if that is crossed, then a rally towards 1.9900 could be seen before a fall is seen again.

On the downside the Support is at 1.9740 and then at 1.9700-9698, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. We don’t have any trades currently, however we expect sellers on rallies.

USD-CHF @ 1.0124/28....Strong Resistance at 1.0157-60
R: 1.0157-60 / 1.0200-05
S: 1.0100 / 1.0060
USD-CHF has had sharp fall during the day and we entered a Long at 1.0046, which met its take profit at 1.0100. The pair is currently near its important Resistance of 1.0157-60, which may or may not be crossed today. That is the upper end of its trading range of 1.0157 and 0.9800. In case that is crossed, then a rally towards 1.0200-05 may be seen.
On the downside the Support is at 1.0100 and then at 1.0060. The pair is likely to find buyers on a dip.

AUD-USD @ 0.9065/70...Towards 0.8850
R: 0.9120 / 0.9160-70
S: 0.9040 / 0.9000-0.8990
AUD-USD has had a sharp fall during the day below its important level of 0.9120, which is now likely to act as a strong Resistance. The pair looks to be headed towards 0.8850 in the next few days, which comes on a trendline on the weekly charts. In the interim the Support is likely at 0.9038, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. We have changed our view from the morning, when we had expected 0.9120 to hold.

On the upside the Resistance would come in at 0.9120 and then at 0.9160. The pair needs to move above 0.9170 on a sustained basis to question the potential for further fall.

Kshitij Consultancy Service

USD-CHF @ 0.9942/47....Support at 0.9860-50
--------------------------------------------
R: 0.9960 / 1.0000 / 1.0050
S: 0.9897-90 / 0.9860-50
USD-CHF has been very choppy in the last few days, and now there is a consolidation underway. The market may trade within 1.0157 and 0.9800 in the next few days. The day-to-day moves are likely to be very volatile and choppy.

The pair fell sharply during the day to a low of 0.9869, but has seen a bounce back from there. For today, later on the Support would come in at 0.9897-90, near the statistically projected Max Low for the day. Below that the Support is at 0.9860-50. On the upside the Resistance would come in at 0.9960. Above that the Resistance is at 1.0000 and 1.0050, on the trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the highs of 1.0921 (26-Feb) and 1.0355 (11-Mar). We don’t have any trades currently.

GBP-USD @ 1.9986/90....Stay out
-------------------------------
R: 2.0000 / 2.0060
S: 1.9945-40 / 1.9900
GBP-USD has had a sharp fall during the day and it has stopped us out at 1.9968, on the Long, which was entered at 2.0010. The pair is currently near an important Support of 1.9945-40, and a sustained break below that would be bearish. If that is seen, then a fall towards 1.9900 could follow, later today or tomorrow.

On the upside the Resistance is at 2.0000 and then at 2.0060. We are staying out of the pair.

AUD-USD @ 0.9320/24...Resistance near 0.9340
-------------------------------------------
R: 0.9370 / 0.9409
S: 0.9300 / 0.9260 / 0.9205
The AUD-USD could be a good bet for some Buy Low/ Sell High range trade between 0.9120-9473 for the next several days. It is currently in the middle of this range, so nothing should be done immediately, but trading at the extremes of the range could be profitable. See the chart at http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml

The pair has had a fall during the day so far, after the rally to a high of 0.9354. Currently the immediate Support is at 0.9280. Below that the Support is at 0.9232, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance 0.9360 and then at 0.9409, the statistically projected Max High for the day. We don’t have any trades currently.

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service Team

GBP-USD @ 2.0277/84...Bullish Biased
R: 2.0350 / 2.0390 / 2.0435
S: 2.0240 / 2.0174
GBP-USD has had a bit of a fall during the day. We entered a Long at 2.0300, which was stopped out at 2.0270. However, this fall is currently profit booking, and there could be a rally once again later on in the day, possibly towards 2.0435 later on (today or next week), which is on a trendline on the Daily Charts joining the highs of 1.9975 (27-Feb) and 2.0392 (13-Mar).
However, interim Resistance would come in at 2.0350 and 2.0390.
On the downside the Supports are at 2.0240 and then at 2.0174, on the trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the lows of 1.9720 (05-Mar) and 1.9995 (11-Mar). We are bullish on the pair.

USD-CHF @ 1.0107/12.....Bearish Biased
R: 1.0110 / 1.0170
S: 1.0025 / 1.0000-0.9997 / 0.9960
There has been no change in directional view in USD-CHF, which continues to be in a long-term downtrend. Now the pair is headed towards 1.0000, which is likely to act as a Support atleast for a few hours. Note that the statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 0.9997. However one could see sharp selling on a break of that level. There is a small intraday Support is at 1.0025-28, on the trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the lows of 1.0133 (07-Mar) and 1.0043 (13-Mar).
On the upside the Resistance is at 1.0110 and then at 1.0170. Selling rallies is still the best option.

AUD-USD @ 0.9384/88...Resistance near 0.9505
R: 0.9420 / 0.9480 / 0.9505
S: 0.9370 / 0.9340
AUD-USD did not move above its important Resistance of 0.9505 in the morning, and a sharp fall has been seen during the day. Now the pair is coming close to its Support of 0.9370, which could hold. A break below that could result in a fall towards 0.9340 before a bounce back.
On the upside the Resistance is at 0.9420 and then at 0.9480. The daily view for the pair is neutral, however buying on dips is likely.

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service

GBP-USD @ 2.0195/99...Bullish Biased
R: 2.0215-20 / 2.0250 / 2.0278
S: 2.0130 / 2.0090 / 2.0060
GBP-USD had a nice rally last week and is currently trading above its 200-Day MA of 2.0130, which would now become a Support this week. Below that the Support would come in at 2.0000-1.9970, the “breakout level” which was crossed last week. This week the pair could rally towards 2.0300 or even 2.0400-0455, the statistically projected Max High for the week. Dips are likely to see buyers. The bias for the pair is bullish while it holds above 1.9970 on a sustained basis.

Today the Support is at 2.0130 and then at 2.0090. The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 2.0066. On the upside the Resistance is at 2.0215-20 and then at 2.0250. The statistically projected Max High for the day is at 2.0278. The bias for the pair is bullish and dips could be used to buy.

Limit Buy Order:
Buy GBP 10K at 2.0073, SL 1.9970, TP Open

USD-CHF @ 1.0221/25...Stays Bearish
R: 1.0250 / 1.0290
S: 1.0190 / 1.0123
USD-CHF closed with sharp losses again last week and dipped to a record low of 1.0134. It has fallen now for last four consecutive weeks and is quite oversold, and caution on Short positions would be required. That said, the pair continues to be in a downtrend. The immediate Support is on a trendline at 1.0100 which is shown in the first chart at

Below that the pair would target parity at 1.0000. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.0450, which needs to be broken to question the scope for further downside. The important event for the week would be SNB meeting on Thursday.

Today the immediate Support is at 1.0190 and the statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 1.0123. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.0250 and then at 1.0290. The statistically projected Max High for the day is at 1.0323.

AUD-USD @ 0.9255/59...Support at 0.9220-15
R: 0.9315 / 0.9362-63
S: 0.9260 / 0.9220-14
AUD-USD ran into selling near its highs on 4 out of 5 days last week and it is currently ranged within 0.9220 and 0.9400, which was also seen in the last part last week. This range is likely to stay in place for the first part of this week, before a directional move emerges. An eventual upward break of this range may be seen later on to target its all time high of 0.9497 provided .9220 holds as Support. A downward break below 0.9220 could result in a fall towards 0.9100. The Aussie Labour force data is coming out on Thursday, which would be important.

In the short term, the immediate Support is at 0.9260. Below that the Support is at 0.9214, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 0.9315. Above that the Resistance is at 0.9362-63, the statistically projected Max High for the day. This Resistance also coincides with the trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the highs of 0.9423 (03-Mar) and 0.9388 (06-Mar). We don’t have any trades currently. However, a dip towards 0.9220 could be used to buy with a stop loss below 0.9190.

Limit Buy Order:
Buy AUD 10K at 0.9220, SL 0.9180, TP 0.9330

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service Team

USD-CHF @ 1.0688/92...Falling Sharply
R: 1.0730 / 1.0780
S: 1.0675-70 / 1.0648
USD-CHF has fallen sharply during the day as well to fresh record lows and is currently near its Support of 1.0675-70 on the trendline on the Daily Candles joining the lows of 1.0887 (Nov-07) and 1.0733 (01-Feb-08). A break below that could lead to further losses in the pair possibly towards 1.0648, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.0730 and 1.0780. Two-way moves are likely over the remainder of the week and caution would be advocated.

GBP-USD @ 1.9844/48...Near Important Support of 1.9840-35
R: 1.9900 / 1.9950
S: 1.9840-35 / 1.9780 / 1.9720
GBP-USD has come off sharply off its highs of 1.9975 seen earlier in the day on back of persistent rumors of a bank in trouble in the UK. This has caused a rally in EUR-GBP.
Intraday the Support for GBP-USD is at 1.9840, a break below which could see further acceleration of losses in GBP possibly towards 1.9780. However, the statistically projected Max Low for the day would provide Support at 1.9825. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.9900 and then at 1.9950. We were stopped out at 1.9870 on Long which was entered at 1.9896 in the morning.

AUD-USD @ 0.9393/97...Last Leg of Upmove
R: 0.9380 / 0.9403 / 0.9503
S: 0.9342 / 0.9312
The Aussie is close to testing the Nov-07 High near 0.9403. How much further up can it go? A trendline joining the Feb-04 and Nov-07 peaks on the Weekly Close chart provides Resistance near current levels itself. However, when we look at the Weekly Candles, a similar trendline joining the Feb-04 and Nov-07 Highs provides Resistance at a higher level near 0.9500. This suggests that both in Feb-04 and Nov-07, the Aussie had spiked to high levels on an intra-week basis, but had fallen back after that. A similar movement could be expected this time. As such, selling in the 0.9450-9500 region might be considered.

But, it could take another day or two to reach 0.9450-9500. In the more here and now, the Aussie is in an uptrend with Support at 0.0342. If the immediate Resistance at 0.9380 breaks, a rise towards 0.9450-9500 could be seen.

Limit Sell Order:
Sell AUD 10K at 0.9499, SL 0.9609, TP 0.9299

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service Team

USD-CHF @ 1.0930/35...Support near 1.0850
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R: 1.0960 / 1.0999
S: 1.0850-40 / 1.0820
USD-CHF has had a small bounce during the day so far after a dip to 1.0883 earlier. It is now near the middle of its trading range of 1.0850 – 1.1050, which is likely to hold this week. We expect buyers to emerge on dips towards 1.0850-40, which comes on a trendline on the Daily Charts joining the lows of 1.0887 (23-Nov) and 1.0838 (16-Jan). Below 1.0850-40, the Support would come in at 1.0820, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. Immediate Resistance is at 1.0960 and then at 1.0999 is the statistically projected Max High for the day.

GBP-USD @ 1.9921/25....Holding Long
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R: 1.9940 / 1.9992
S: 1.9880 / 1.9800
GBP-USD is moving up sharply and can test 2.0000 over the coming days. We are holding a long position.

Currently it is trading near the highest level of 2008 and the immediate Resistance is at 1.9940. Above this the statistically projected Max High for the day is at 1.9992. On the downside the Support is at 1.9880 and then at 1.9800.

Holding:
GBP 10K Long at 1.9866, SL 1.9820, TP Open. As soon as the market trades 1.9960 hereafter, bring SL up to 1.9870.

AUD-USD @ 0.8884/88...Resistance near 0.8940-50
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R: 0.8940-50 / 0.8984
S: 0.8950 / 0.8905-00 / 0.8774
AUD-USD is sustaining its gains after the sharp rally yesterday. However it is still within its overall range 0.8900 and 0.8609. Further, above 0.8900, there is a strong Resistance near 0.8940-50, on the Daily Candles joining the highs of 0.9403 (07-Nov) and 0.9023 (15-Jan). The statistically projected Max High for the day is at 0.8984. There could be a rally towards 0.8940-50 later today.

On the downside the Support is at 0.8850, on the trendline on the 4-Hourly charts joining the lows of 0.8511 (22-Jan) and 0.8772 (28-Jan). Below this the Support is at 0.8805-00, near the 20-Day MA. The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 0.8774.

AUD-JPY @ 95.02/06....Holding Long
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R: 95.44-50 / 96.10
S: 94.55 / 94.15 / 93.50
AUD-JPY is bullish currently, which is likely to continue later today as well. It has Support near 94.05, on a trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the lows of 90.45 (23-Jan) and 93.00 (28-Jan).

Holding:
AUD-JPY 10K Long at 94.75, SL 93.80 (up from 93.50), TP 95.90. As soon as the market trades at 95.40 now, bring SL up to 94.00.

Happy Trading!

Kshitij Consultancy Service Team

USD-CHF @ 1.0910/14...Sideways range 1.0850-1050
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R: 1.0962-72 / 1.0998-1006 / 1.1050-55
S: 1.0923 / 1.0853 / 1.0831
Last two weeks have been volatile within the overall downtrend. The Candles show long wicks on both sides and small bodies. Suggests acute indecision in the market. A fresh dip/ fall to test 1.0850-00 is a possibility this week also, but a precipitations fall down towards 1.07-1.08 seems unlikely.

The more likely scenario is that of sideways range trade between 1.0850-1050 through the week. Dips below 1.0850 are likely to be short-lived.

Today the immediate Support is at 1.0890 and then at 1.0853, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.0960 and then at 1.0990.

GBP-USD @ 1.9838/42...Resistance near 1.9850-60
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R: 1.9830-40 / 1.9870
S: 1.9680-70 / 1.9620
GBP-USD remains in an overall downtrend, inspite of sharp pullback in the last 4 days of last week after a low of 1.9337 was seen on 22-Jan, just before the US Fed cut rates.

On the weekly charts, it is just below an important Resistance of 1.9870-80, on the trendline joining the highs of 2.1163 (09-Nov) and 2.0826 (29-Nov). A move above that could see further rally towards 2.0000 before a fall. We expect selling on rallies to continue. However, in case 1.9870 is not crossed, a fall towards 1.9600 would be more likely in the next few days.

For today the immediate Support is at 1.9680-70, on a trendline on the 4-Hourly joining the lows of 1.9337 (22-Jan) and 1.9498 (24-Jan). Note that the statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 1.9678. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.9830-40 and then at 1.9870. Short positions can be considered near 1.9840 with SL above 1.9900 and targeting 1.9750 in the week.

AUD-USD @ 0.8810/14...Sell a Big Rally
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R: 0.8850 / 0.8897-0.8905
S: 0.8870-65 / 0.8720 / 0.8690-88
Last week, AUD-USD rallied sharply after a big fall to 0.8511 earlier in the week. The sharp rise in the latter part of the week probably negates the fall from the 0.9019 High of 15-Jan. Whether it negates the bigger fall coming down from the 0.94 High of 07-Nov-07, is unknown at the moment.

For this week, the pair is likely to stay ranged within 0.8900 and 0.8609, the latter being the 200-MA on the Daily Candles. Just below that we have trendline Support at 0.8560-50, on the Daily Candles joining the lows of 0.7674 (17-Aug) and 0.8511 (22-Jan). On the upside the Resistance above 0.8900, is at 0.8935-50, on the Daily Candles joining the highs of 0.9403 (07-Nov) and 0.9023 (15-Jan).

For today the Resistance is at 0.8850 and then at 0.8897, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Support is at 0.8770-65 and then at 0.8720. The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 0.8689. We’d like to sell a sharp rally

Limit Sell Order:
Sell AUD 10K at 0.8910, SL 0.8950, TP 0.8750.

Happy Trading

Kshitij Consultancy Service

USD-CHF @ 1.1293/97...Holding Long
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R: 1.1310 / 1.1357
S: 1.1240 / 1.1200
USD-CHF had a sharp upmove last week and with that it cut its losses, which were seen in the prior two weeks. Now the pair is likely to see extension of last week’s gain this week. The initial Resistance this week would be at 1.1357, the 200-MA on the 4-Hourly. Above that the Resistance would be at 1.1440. The Support this week would be at 1.1200, and then at 1.1140, with dips expected to find buying.

The pair hit a low of 1.1250 during the day and is currently just below its intraday Resistance of 1.1310-20. A move above that could lead to a rally towards 1.1348, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Supports are at 1.1250 and then at 1.1220. We are holding a long position currently.

Holding:
USD 10K Long at 1.1213, SL 1.1170 (up from 1.1150), TP Open

GBP-USD @ 2.0640/45....BOE Meets on Thursday
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R: 2.0620 / 2.0660
S: 2.0550-45 / 2.0520 / 2.0450
GBP-USD was pressurized last week, and it fell sharply after hitting a high of 2.0835. Importantly, GBP closed with losses last month, for the first time since August-07. Now the pair is expected to remain pressurized this week as well. However, the important Support in the week is at 2.0450, a break below which could see deeper losses. On the upside the Resistances are at 2.0680 and then at 2.0750. Rallies are likely to face strong selling. There is an important BOE meeting on Thursday, which is likely to lead to considerable volatility. Trading light should be preferred this week.

GBP has had a nice upmove in the day, but would face Resistance near 2.0670-80, which is a strong Resistance. A move above that could lead to a rally towards 2.0703, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Supports are at 2.0580 and then at 2.0524-20, the low for the day so far. We are not trading the pair currently.

See BOE Rate and GBP Libor chart at
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ukboe.shtml


AUD-USD @ 0.8829/34...Holding Short in Long term
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R: 0.8850-55 / 0.8890
S: 0.8785 / 0.8750-40
AUDUSD was choppy without any clear direction all through last week, and a similar behaviour is expected this week, with strong Resistance coming near 0.8900, which comes on a trendline on the Daily Candles joining the highs of 0.8999 (19-Nov) and 0.8923 (28-Nov). On the downside the Support for the next few days would be at 0.8700, and a break below that on a closing basis is required to see deeper losses. We expect losses down the line in the week. The RBA interest rate decision is on Wednesday, 05-Dec AUD Time Zone.

For today the Resistance is at 0.8850-55 and then at 0.8890. On the downside the Supports are at 0.8785 and then at 0.8750. We are holding a Short position in Long Term account.

Holding (in Long-term book):
AUD 10K Short at 0.8724, SL 0.8924, TP 0.8500

RBA meets on Wednesday. See RBA rate and AUD Libor chart at
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/aurba.shtml

Happy Trading!