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Wednesday, 25 June 2008

Mizuho Corporate Bank

EUR
Comment: Holding above the nine-day moving average at 1.5476 again, suggesting we are setting up for a short squeeze at the end of this week. One way or another 1.5650 is the mid-point of the band since March and hardly something to get excited about.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.5575, adding to 1.5475; stop below 1.5440. Short term target 1.5620/1.5650.

EUR/JPY
Comment: Inching to a new recent high at 168.38 yesterday. The Euro is very overbought so we continue to watch and wait for signs of topping, possibly with an initial short squeeze and then a sharp reversal.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 167.90; stop above 168.45. Short term target 167.25, then 165.65.

GBP
Comment: Holding above the bottom of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and set to re-test trendline resistance at 1.9725 today. More important resistance lies at 1.9800 so no need to get too excited.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.9675, adding to 1.9600; stop below 1.9550. Short term target 1.9750 then 1.9800.

JPY
Comment: Dull and frustrating so open interest is about the lowest in three years. Not surprisingly one-month at-the-money implied volatility has dropped and is likely to continue to do so while we trade randomly in tiny ranges.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 107.85/108.25; stop above 108.65. Short term target 107.45, then 106.50.