Mizuho Corporate Bank

EUR
Comment: Dipping below support at 1.5360 Friday but recovering this morning, suggesting we shall hold above here today. Expect small random moves roughly between 1.5350 and 1.5500 today.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.5415, adding to 1.5375; stop/reverse below 1.5350 for 1.5300 and eventually 1.5135. Cover longs at 1.5500/1.5550 and then watch for signs of stalling before going short.

EUR/JPY
Comment: Little to add as we consolidate in a small range at some of the highest ever levels. If anything price action over the last five days is a small ‘pennant’ hinting at another serious upside test. We are very unsure as to our current outlook and therefore suggest one does as little as possible again today and we continue to watch for topping activity.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 166.75; stop above 167.25. Short term target 165.65, then 165.00.

GBP
Comment: Holding yet again above support between 1.9200 and 1.9400, an area that has held umpteen times over the last eighteen months. Very good volumes in futures contracts and open interest soaring to a new record hints at very aggressive positioning. Be very careful and expect the unexpected.
Strategy: Buy at 1.9520; stop below 1.9400. Short term target 1.9650.

JPY
Comment: A big rally last week takes prices to their highest since mid-February and to an area where chart levels are poor. Momentum is steadily bullish and the US dollar is not overbought. We continue to feel the corrective bounce is mature in terms of time and therefore continue to watch for signs of topping (as we have been doing unsuccessfully for weeks).
Strategy: Do as little as possible. For those who have to: possibly attempt tiny shorts at 108.25; stop above 108.70. Short term target 106.60, then 105.00.