Mizuho Corporate Bank

EUR
Comment: Retreating from a recent high at 1.5814 and will probably hold below here today in what should be a quiet day’s trading. Note that the Euro is not overbought and momentum is still bullish, and open interest is relatively high. We continue to watch for very slow topping activity between 1.5740 and 1.5900.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts on a bounce to 1.5800; stop above 1.5915. Short term target 1.5630, maybe 1.5400.

EUR/JPY
Comment: Not going according to plan as we break and close above 163.00. While below April’s high at 164.98 we shall continue to hope for topping activity but slow and difficult moves this year are really trying our patience. For this morning expect a squeeze higher noting that we have no real idea where it may top.
Strategy: Do as little as possible. Possibly attempt tiny shorts with a stop above 165.00.

GBP
Comment: Breaking above the top of the downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation almost retracing 50% of the decline since early March. Note the very thin Ichimoku ‘cloud’ hinting that we may slice easily through here over the long holiday weekend. Very serious reassessment is likely when we break above 2.0000. ‘Teenage scribblers’ will rush to rip up latest anti-Sterling calls.
Strategy: Buy at 1.9800, adding to 1.9750; stop below 1.9600. Short term target 1.9850/1.9880, eventually 2.0000.

JPY
Comment: Yesterday’s price action has done little to alter the Technical picture. We have yet to complete a ‘double top’ with a break below recent lows at 102.57, and below the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ at 102.20. Late today or more likely early next week allow for a test of these.
Strategy: Sell at 104.00; stop well above 104.75. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 103.40 for 102.65.