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Wednesday, 5 March 2008

Mizuho Corporate Bank

EUR
Comment: Consolidating fairly neatly just under the all-time high at 1.5276 and will probably do so again today. Dips towards 1.5000 are seen as buying opportunities for a rally to 1.5600 later this year.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.5195, adding to 1.5100; stop below 1.4950. Short term target 1.5250 then 1.5350, maybe 1.5550.

EUR/JPY
Comment: Little to add as we hug the bottom of a very large Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Prices continue to cling to the bottom of the ‘flag’ corrective bounce and it is just a matter of when we manage a serious break lower. This could be very dramatic and therefore at-the-money implied volatility should increase.
Strategy: Sell at 157.25/157.40; stop above 159.00. Short term target 156.00, then 154.00.

GBP
Comment: Sleepy hollow and too boring for words. Price action over the last five days is seen as a small ‘flag/pennant’ which should set up for a test of the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. A swiftly rising 9-day average may add a little upside pressure. A break above 2.0000 should force many to re-think.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.9800; stop below 1.9600. Short term target 1.9960/2.0000.

JPY
Comment: Consolidating neatly above 102.60, close to the lowest levels of the last decade. Expect more of the same today with a small squeeze higher. Rallies should be limited to the 104.50/105.00 area and are seen as good selling opportunities for a drop later this month.
Strategy: Possibly attempt shorts at 103.50, adding to 104.00; stop above 105.50. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 102.50 for 101.80.