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Tuesday, 19 February 2008

Windsor Brokers Ltd

EURUSD
Fresh advance off 1.4611, 18 Feb higher low, cleared previous 15 Feb 1.4709 high, to reach fresh high of 1.4742 today. This marks between 50% and 61.8% retrace of the decline from 1.4953, 01 Feb yearly high and 1.4441, 07 Feb bottom. Immediate pullback is now underway, as hourly studies are overbought. However, uptrend remains intact while 1.4642/11 support zone holds and upside clearance of 1.4742 will focus 1.4756, 61.8% retrace first, ahead of possible stretch towards 1.4786/1.4800.

Res: 1.4742, 1.4756, 1.4786, 1.4800
Sup: 1.4661, 1.4642, 1.4621, 1.4611

GBPUSD
Continues to retrace 1.9386/1.9737, 07/14 Feb upleg. 1.9474 low was reached on 18 Feb, ahead of 1.9479/1.9540 consolidation. Fresh weakness emerged from there, with clearance of 1.9479/79 support zone, triggering fresh extension to 1.9452 today. Short-term bears are firmly in play and 1.9443/38 seen next, ahead of 1.9400/1.9386 retest. Upside, 1.9534/40 caps for now and only break there to trigger stronger recovery.

Res: 1.9540, 1.9565, 1.9580, 1.9623
Sup: 1.9452, 1.9438, 1.9400, 1.9386

USDJPY
Underwent steady recovery from 105.00, 23 Jan low, to reach 108.60 high on 14 Feb, ahead of pullback. This reached 107.66/27 lows on 15 Feb, though, upside attempts from there were capped by 108.30/32. Fresh weakness from there is underway , testing 107.27/21, previous low/38.2% retrace of 105.00/108.60, with break lower to confirm lower top at 108.32 and open way for deeper reversal towards 107.00/106.81. Oversold hourly studies, however, signal a possible correction towards 107.75/89, before fresh bears. Only break above the latter improves the outlook and opens 108.32 instead.

Res: 107.75, 107.89, 108.32, 108.60
Sup: 107.21, 107.00, 106.81, 106.65

USDCHF
Bounced higher from 1.0728, all-time low, with gains being limited by 1.1102/06, 07/13 Feb highs. Reversal from there followed, reaching 1.0884 on 15 Feb, ahead of fresh attempt higher. This left a lower top at 1.1044 on 18 Feb, increasing risk of fresh weakness. 1.0909 has been reached so far, with clearance of 1.0884/60 lows required to resume bears en-route to 1.0728. Upside regain of 1.1012/44 zone will avert the downside risk.

Res: 1.0975, 1.0992, 1.1009, 1.1044
Sup: 1.0909, 1.0884, 1.0860, 1.0830