Mizuho Corporate Bank

EUR
Comment: Consolidating in the middle of the large ‘triangle’ consolidation pattern. Expect more random moves roughly between 1.4600 and 1.4800 again today.

Strategy: Buy at 1.4675, adding to 1.4600; stop below 1.4550. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.4800 for 1.4850 and then 1.4900.

EUR/JPY
Comment: Expect more sharp moves this week at the lower edge of what we see as a massive top. Downside pressure increases if we now hold below 160.00.

Strategy: Sell on a bounce to 157.00, adding to 158.00; stop above 159.25. Short term target 155.70, then 152.00.

GBP
Comment: Breaking above the top of the ‘wedge’ and forming a ‘bullish engulfing’ candle on the week. We expect a squeeze to 2.0000 and then 2.0600 next month.

Strategy: Buy at 1.9760, adding to 1.9655; stop below 1.9450. Add to longs above 1.9900 for 2.0100 short term.

JPY
Comment: Re-testing pivotal support between 105.50 and 105.00 rather sooner than expected. Same idea for equity indices and Yen crosses. Be very careful as implied volatility could burst even higher again as and when we break key chart levels. Note that open interest is a fraction of last year’s peak.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts on a bounce to 107.00, adding to 107.50; stop above 108.15. Cover shorts ahead of 105.50 but be ready to re-sell on a sustained break below 104.85 for 103.45.