Mizuho Corporate Bank

EUR
Comment: Consolidating below 1.4850. Intra-day moves are likely to be sharp and sudden therefore at-the-money implied volatility is likely to remain high. For today we favour a downside test, probably to a new recent low, then stabilising again.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.4750; stop below 1.4675. Target 1.4850.


EUR/JPY
Comment: Little to add as we consolidate inside the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Momentum is now neutral and implied volatility has eased.

Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged: sell at 163.00/163.50; stop above 164.50. Short term target 160.50, eventually 158.50.

GBP
Comment: Some may be surprised that Cable is holding so consistently above 2.0000 considering the financial and political turmoil. It just goes to show how weak the US dollar has become and how long people’s memories can be. Medium term while above 2.0000 the next move is to new recent highs.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 2.0600, adding to 2.0500; stop below 2.0300. Short term target 2.0800/2.0840.

JPY
Comment: Yesterday’s tiny range suggests the market is looking for direction. Rallies are still seen as selling opportunities for a move lower later this year. Momentum is now neutral.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 110.50; stop above 110.65. Add to shorts below 109.50 for 107.50.