Mizuho Corporate Bank

EUR
Comment: Still consolidating below the all-time high at 1.3853 yet giving up very little room. We would prefer to see more work below here this week. The Euro is not overbought and momentum is only just positive.

Strategy: Trade the range between 1.3700 and 1.3800.

EUR/JPY
Comment: Looking set for a short-squeeze. A sustained break above 164.00 should trigger a move towards 164.75 today and probably no higher than 166.00 this week.

Strategy: Attempt longs at 163.50 adding to 162.50; stop/reverse below 162.00 for 161.00 and probably 160.65. Cover longs ahead of 166.00.

GBP
Comment: Pulling back sharply from an interim high at 2.0463 in what we feel will be an A, B, C-type move. The low should lie somewhere between 2.0200 and 2.0000 and is seen as a buying opportunity for further US dollar weakness later this year.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 2.0200; tight stop below 2.0175 to re-buy on signs of basing ahead of 2.0000. Cover longs at 2.0350/2.0400.

JPY
Comment: Yesterday’s sharp ‘spike low’ adds weight to our view that we have probably formed an interim low at 117.19. The outlook is very mixed and we shall allow for large intra-day price swings around current levels. A break above 119.50 should set off a short squeeze to 120.45.

Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 119.00; stop/reverse above 119.65 for 120.45 and probably no higher than 121.00. Cover shorts ahead of 118.00.